Zihao Chen

Hello!

Welcome to my personal website! My name is Zihao Chen, and I'm a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University of Washington -- Seattle.

Throughout my academic journey, I've been fortunate enough to work on a number of fascinating research projects, including trying to solve a long lasting empirical puzzle in international finance by machine learning, and exploring how immigration affects the U.S. economy. I'm passionate about macroeconomics, international finance, and time-series forecasting, and I love the process of uncovering new insights and pushing the boundaries of knowledge.

In addition to my research, I've also had the opportunity to gain valuable experience through internships at Amazon. These experiences have allowed me to apply my academic knowledge to real-world challenges and have given me a deeper appreciation for the importance of collaboration and teamwork.

On this website, you'll find information about my education, research, work, and teaching experience. I've also included a section for hiking and camping in Washington, as I believe that a well-rounded life outside of academia is essential to maintaining a healthy and productive mindset.

I hope that this website will give you a sense of who I am as a researcher and a person. If you have any questions or would like to discuss potential collaborations, please feel free to send a message using the contact form. Thank you for visiting, and I look forward to connecting with you soon!

(If this intro makes you cringe, ChatGPT is happy to take all the blame.)

Experience

Education

• Ph.D. in Economics, The University of Washington, expected in 2023.
• M.A. in Economics, The University of Washington, 2019.
• B.S. in Computational and Applied Mathematics and Statistics, The College of William and Mary in Virignia, 2017.

Research

• The effect of immigration of the natural interest rate
  I differentiate between high and low skilled immigrants and provide a theoretical framework for evaluating the impact of immigration on the natural real interest rate and household welfare. The model features a flexible natural rate, which can be permanently negative, resulting in a secular stagnation steady state.

• Predicting exchange rates with machine learning: expectations, nonlinearity, and parameter instability
  (with Yu-Chin Chen and Pushpak Sarkar)
  In this paper we re-examine the Meese-Rogoff puzzle in international finance with machine learning methods. We find that ML does not resolve the puzzle completely, but neural network is able to consistently perform at least as good as random walk, and extract the same amount of information from macrofundamentals than from term structure variables.

• A dynamic model of a commercial fishery under alternative regulations (with Chris Anderson)
  We build a dynamic model to address both the ecological and economic tragidies of the commons. By explicitly highlighting how fishers' incentives for fishing efforts change due to biological and economic factors under different management methods, we debunk the traditional concept of MEY stock level, and provide a simple yet rich framework for understanding fishery management.

Work Experience

• Amazon, Economist Intern, 2022 and 2023
  
  • Time series forecasting can be applied to many business scenarios, from budget planning, setting business target, human resource decisions, to most generally, efficiently allocating resources. My team at Amazon aims to reduce manual efforts and human errors by forecasting key business drivers and automating the decision making process.
  • My focus during my internships is on hierarchical forecasting, for example, forecasting total labor demand in a region at a time, then break down by location, service line, and/or shifts. The key is about how to extract most signals from data at all levels.

Teaching Experience

• PhD level: first year Macro I and Macro III (TA); math camp (instructor); TA training workshop (co-instructor); lead TA at UW Econ.
• MBA level: global macro for full time, evening, technology management, and executive MBA programs (TA).
• Undergrad level: introductory macro (TA); intermediate macro (instructor); mathematical econ (TA); time-series metrics (TA).

Resume and CV available upon request.

Hiking and Camping in WA

Pacific northwest is known for our outdoor activities, such as hiking, camping, fishing, sailing, and so many more. Below I list some of my personal favorites around Seattle. Most are easy to moderate day hikes, except some marked by ** or ***. All are linked to either their AllTrails pages, official websites, or recreation.gov .

Within 1 hour from Seattle

• Little Si trail
• Rattlesnake Ledge trail
• Chirco Trail to Poo Poo Point
• Snow Lake trail
• Teneriffe Falls trail
• Dirty Harry's Balcony
• Mount Si trail
• Mount Teneriffe
• Mailbox Peak new trail**
• Mailbox Peak old trail**

Within 2 hours from Seattle

• Lake 22 trail
• Heather Lake trail
• Kachess Lake campground
• Mount Erie park
• Deception Pass state park

Mount Rainier National Park

• Sunrise region with many easy trails
• Skyline trail at Paradise
• Grove of the Patriarchs trail
• Camp Muir via Skyline***
• The Wonderland trail***
• Cougar Rock campground

Olympic National Park

• Hurricane Ridge
• Lake Crescent
• Hall of Mosses trail
• Hoh River trail (short)
• Hoh River trail ***
• Sol Duc Falls trail
• Devil's Punchbowl trail
• Hoh Rainforest campground
• Mora campground
• Sol Duc campground
• Kalaloch campground

More than 2 hours away

• Mount St. Helens***
• Lake Wenatchee State Park (with campgrounds)
• Eight Mile campground near Wenatchee
• Lake Chelan State Park (with campgrounds)
• The Enchantments trail***
• Palouse Falls State Park
• Steptoe Butte State Park
• North Cascades National Park
• Ross Dam and Diablo Lake trail
• Maple Pass trail

Contact

Elements

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